The 2023 Fade List

I’ve written articles on the pitchers and hitters I’m rostering the most in 2023. Now it’s time to look at the players I was not willing to invest in. Part of my purpose is to put out some (hopefully) interesting and thought-provoking content.

But I’m also publishing this in the hopes of becoming a better fantasy player. At the end of the year, it’s hard to remember exactly why you rostered or faded certain players. It becomes a bit of a blur after a long season, and your biases kick in. You remember the wins and forget the losses. It’s human nature.

At the end of the 2023 season, I want to be able to look back and see who I was right about and who I wrong about. And I want to be able to learn from that. If you’re not someone who publishes rankings or content, I encourage you to do the same. Just make a list of the guys you rostered the most and why. And do the same for the players you avoided.

I’m going to use NFBC ADP, and go round-by-round to list the players I intentionally did not draft in each round, and why. We’ll go 15 rounds deep. After that, ADP becomes a bit of a blur.

Round 1:

Bo Bichette – Nothing wrong with Bichette. Very productive fantasy baseball player, but I love so many shortstops later. And I’m not sure the speed is legit. Too much risk for me to build my offense around.

Round 2:

Michael Harris II – The lefty splits scare me off in the 2nd round. Why not wait a round or two and get Cedric Mullins II? Or avoid both altogether, and don’t overpay for speed.

Max Scherzer – One of the most fearsome aces in baseball. But too many injuries for a guy pushing 40 in the 2nd round.

Round 3:

Nolan Arenado – I don’t think the third base position is as bad as the narrative is. That’s the only reason he’s being drafted here. If I don’t already have Manny Machado, Austin Riley, or Rafael Devers, I’m waiting to draft a later round 3B target.

Matt Olson – So many slugging first basemen with similar profiles way later in the draft. Why spend an early pick here? Would you rather have Olson & Jorge Polanco or Jazz Chisholm & Rowdy Tellez? Or, compare Olson & Daniel Bard with Jordan Romano & Christian Walker. The choice is never Olson for me.

Round 4:

Ryan Pressly – Worried about his persistent knee problems as he pushes 35. Astros have plenty of options if he takes even a small step backwards.

Dylan Cease – The BABIP and LOB% figure to regress and the walks are concerning. Long-term, I still love him in dynasty. But I think he’ll look a lot like Robbie Ray this season, who you can get 25+ picks later in most drafts. I end up grabbing my first closer in this range in most drafts.

Round 5:

Alek Manoah – One of my favorite pitchers to watch. Smart. Competitive. Cocky. And what a rookie year. But the BABIP and strand rate indicate he’ll come back down to earth in 2023. He should still be a fine pitcher. But the price is too high for me here.

Adley Rutschman and Salvador Perez – These guys are part of a strong group of catchers including William Contreras, Willson Contreras, MJ Melendez, Alejandro Kirk, and Sean Murphy. Why take Rutschman or Perez when you can get similar production from another one 3-4 rounds later?

Round 6:

Camilo Doval – The walks are worrisome, as is the presence of Taylor Rogers. This round is loaded with more reliable foundational players.

Round 7:

Byron Buxton – Eight years, one season with over 100 games played. How’s that for advanced analytics? His decreasing speed and increasing K% don’t make him more attractive.

Tyler Glasnow – A gorgeous pitcher to watch when he’s healthy. But beauty can be fragile.

Round 8:

Hunter Greene – Elite talent. But bad team and ugly ballpark. He throws so hard so often, I worry about his ability to avoid the IL.

Jake McCarthy – He might have the bluest Statcast page of the year. And the competition in that Arizona outfield is steep.

Steven Kwan – He hurts you in home runs and RBI. His speed is not elite. His average projects to regress. If you need a batting average guy with 20 steals at this point, you drafted wrong.

Round 9:

Kyle Wright – I can find a starter with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 12-14 wins 100 picks later. There are at least a dozen pitchers being taken after him that I’d rather roster.

Kris Bryant – Back problems and plantar fasciitis are both injuries that reoccur. I don’t hate the player. But he never ends up on my rosters.

Round 10:

Freddy Peralta – 2019 right shoulder injury, 2021 right shoulder injury, 2022 right shoulder injury. Here’s the thing. He needs his right shoulder to pitch.

Round 11:

Dustin May – May is a fine pitcher whose value is pumped up by his uniform (a good reason), his hair (also a good reason, but not one that will help you win your league), and his twitter gifs (a terrible reason). He has never thrown more than 60 IP in a season. And It’s hard for me to justify taking a pitcher I think will only throw 100-120 IP with decent – not excellent – ratios when there are so many other talented players on the board, including some with higher upside. Also, if he’s even a little bit off, or dinged, he will be rested. Because the Dodgers have at least three starting pitching options in the minors knocking on the door in 2023.

Round 12:

Brandon Nimmo – Since he doesn’t have above-average power or speed, Nimmo is a volume play who will need to earn his draft price by leading off for the Mets for a full season. Given his injury history, along with the Mets other leadoff options if he scuffles, this is an easy pass.

Round 13 and 14:

Jeff McNeil and Luis Arraez – Low HR, low RBI, low SB. Not how I want to build my teams.

Round 15:

Jack Flaherty – Big fan of the individual. Hoping he can put it back together with a healthy season. But until he shows us he’s healthy and effective again, he’s not on my board at all.

Other guys I’m fading in the first 30 rounds: Michael Kopech, Noah Syndegaard, Criag Kimbrel, Roansy Contreras, Mike Clevinger, Myles Straw, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, Gio Urshela, Dylan Carlson, Oscar Gonzalez.